@Article{RibeiroNetoPazMareChou:2016:HyPrCl,
author = "Ribeiro Neto, Alfredo and Paz, Adriano Rolim da and Marengo,
Jos{\'e} Antonio and Chou, Sin Chan",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Universidade
Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Centro Nacional de
Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Hydrological processes and climate change in hydrographic regions
of Brazil",
journal = "Journal of Water Resource and Protection",
year = "2016",
volume = "8",
number = "12",
pages = "1103--1127",
note = "{Setores de Atividade: Pesquisa e desenvolvimento
cient{\'{\i}}fico.}",
keywords = "America do Sul, Modelo Eta, Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas,
Modelo hidrologico, Hydrological Modelling, IPCC Scenarios,
Climate Change, Impacts.",
abstract = "The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of IPCC AR5
climate change scenarios on water resources and hydrological
processes across the entire Brazilian territory. Hydrological
simulations are carried out in total drainage area of about
11,535,645 km2 and average stream flow of about 272,460 m3 /s. The
study area consists of different climates and land covers such as
the Amazon Forest, Northeast Semiarid, Brazilian Savannah,
Pantanal wetlands and temperate climate in the South. The
atmospheric forcing to drive the large-scale hydrological model
MGB-IPH is derived from the downscaling of two global climate
models, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, by the Eta Regional Climate Model,
at 20 km resolution. The Eta model provided the downscaling of the
baseline (1961-1990) and three time-slices (2011- 2040, 2041-2070
and 2071-2099). These projections adopted two emission scenarios,
the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The change in the average and extremes of
precipitation, evapotranspiration, rates of river discharge and
soil moisture were assessed. The simulations showed the response
of the hydrographic regions due to change of precipitation and
potential evapotranspiration in the scenarios. Water availability
decreases in almost the entire study area (exception for the
South) and the major basins for hydroelectric power generation are
affected. The Northwest, Amazon and a small area along the
Northeast Atlantic coast exhibited intensification of the extremes
discharges, where the anomaly is positive for high-flow (Q10) and
negative for low-flow (Q95). The results highlight the most
climatic sensitive regions in Brazil in terms of hydrological
variables and water resources.",
doi = "10.4236/jwarp.2016.812087",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2016.812087",
issn = "1945-3094",
label = "lattes: 4336175279058172 4 RibeiroNetoPazMareChan:2016:HyPrCl",
language = "en",
targetfile = "ribeiro neto_hydrological.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}